Al-Qaeda's Foreign Policy

Here is an article from book I have meant to read for a while, called The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. I do not agree with everything in it. For instance, I do not think that it much matters whether Iran has sent suicide bombers or not if they have made a point of materially and financially supporting these operations. Please, do read this article for yourselves:

http://www.amconmag.com/2005_07_18/article.html

Whether a terrorist blows himself up or blows up an American Humvee with an IED, the end result is the same. Suicide bombing is merely one weapon in Al-Qaeda's arsenal, and the economic position and Islamic indoctrination of individual terrorists are simply recruiting tools for these operations. As an Arabic linguist and analyst of the Middle East, I am more interested in the strategy behind Al-Qaeda's tactics.

I do agree with this statement in Pape's article:

"Al-Qaeda appears to have made a deliberate decision not to attack the United States in the short term. We know this not only from the pattern of their attacks but because we have an actual al-Qaeda planning document found by Norwegian intelligence."

I came to this realization some time ago. It would not be that difficult to conduct another terrorist operation on American soil. So why hasn't it happened? Al-Qaeda has not attacked here again largely because it has chosen not to. Now, this does not mean that there are not funding and support operations going on in this country, nor that there are no terrorist cells. I do not know everything that has gone on since 9/11. But based on Al-Qaeda's stated goals, and their actions so far, I agree that it is not their current strategy to attack us here. Things can change, and they may in fact be motivated to conduct more terrorism here if they think we will withdraw from the Middle East any faster. But that is not the conclusion they have come to for now. And so, for now, to fight them effectively we must understand Al-Qaeda's foreign policy, sot to speak.

Al-Qaeda attacked us in the first place in order to influence our actions. Namely, they want our forces out of the Middle East, and in particular out of Saudi Arabia. In my opinion Al-Qaeda has hijacked our foreign policy as neatly as they did three airplanes on September 11th. They drew us into this fight and now we are fighting them according to their terms. They are fast becoming savvy at assymetrical warfare. They count as victory destabilizing our military operations in the Middle East and forcing our withdrawal from the region on their conditions, and they intend to pursue their goals at all costs. They do not care how many casualties it takes on their side. At the same time they know very well the impact of both American military and local civilian casualties on the stability of Iraq and thus our position in the country, to say nothing of our morale back home. For them, all the death and destruction is a win-win proposition. We have to turn the tide and fight this war on our terms.

As for those who say that Islamicists may someday consider Europe and the United States their homeland which must be purified, you must understand the history and culture of the region. Islamicists wish to return the ancient Islamic Caliphate to an Islamic state. They do not intend to take over the planet, though it is prophesied in the Quran that the whole world will eventually turn to Islam. Their desired Islamic State includes first and foremost the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, then the surrounding area (Saudi Arabia.) Unfortunately the Islamic Caliphate did encompass southern Spain and definitely includes Jerusalem, which does not bode well for resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The problem with Western occupiers in this sacred territory is that they are non-Muslim. And since they hold the upper hand on Middle Eastern soil by their military and political might, they show themselves as stronger than the Muslims and thus degrade or disgrace Islam. Which you may have noticed Muslims are sensitive about.

If we are to act honorably in the region, it will require us to treat the Islamic Middle East with honor. We have preached loudly the doctrine of self determination and then ignored the Arab world's response to our call, that they wish Islam to be the main influence in many, if not most, of their countries. It is quite possible to satisfy this desire for self-determination and our own interests.

We should maintain naval forces offshore and ground forces in the surrounding regions to make it clear that we will react to any attack against our national security or interests with quick and decisive military force. We can in the meantime continue to disrupt and destroy terrorist networks since terrorism constitutes a threat to our national security and global stability.

That is a nice long term goal, but for now we have bigger problems. We must have reassurances that Iraq will be reasonably secure before we offer to withdraw. I would like to see Arab countries step in here, but they have some serious problems with organization and corruption, and difficulty accepting responsibility for their own actions. It will take some carrot-and-really-big-stick diplomacy to convince them. I would like to see democracy in the region, but some countries have made it fairly clear that they aren't interested. The desire for democracy must come from within. I would settle for stability and basic human rights, among them the right for a woman to receive an education and hold a job, and the right to convert from Islam without facing a death sentence! This last has been a problem in the new "democracy" we have set up in Afghanistan.

The situation in the Middle East is complex but it is quite possible to understand the strategy of Al-Qaeda and the motivation behind the will to fight the West in general. We can fight Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups and at the same time address and resolve the concerns of the Arab world. However, Our biggest problem at this moment is Iraq, and until we have solved it, we are not fighting on our terms at all. To summarize: the situation in Iraq right now is not, "Better to fight them over there, than here at home," but rather, "We broke it, we bought it."